market last week declined on all days. Due to this, the BSE’s 30-share Sensex fell 1,538.64 points or 2.52 percent in the last week. Due to the fall in the market, about 8 lakh crores of investors were drowned. In such a situation, there is a fear in the minds of the investors whether the market will stop falling in the next week also or will Tauji return? If you are also a market investor, then you would be curious to know whether the Indian stock market will bounce back or decline further. Come on, what do the experts have to say?
Global trends will affect the market
Market experts say that the direction of the stock markets this week will be determined by global trends, gross domestic product (GDP) data on the domestic front and the trend of foreign funds. Apart from this, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures for the manufacturing and services sector and monthly vehicle sales figures will also influence the market direction. Markets will closely watch global trends including bond yields in the US and the dollar index, said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart, amid fears of a further rate hike by the US central bank amid inflation concerns. The interest rate scenario in the US in the first half of 2023 will be very important from the market point of view. There is no possibility of a big rise or a big fall in the market this week.
Keeping an eye on GDP figures and vehicle sales
The market is not reacting much to the geopolitical situation right now, Meena said, but any unforeseen developments – positive or negative – will be key for the market. Domestically, this week the key figures for us will be the fourth quarter GDP numbers and the monthly vehicle sales numbers. Brent crude oil movement and rupee-dollar movement will also be important for the market. Amol Athawale, deputy vice-president (technical research), Kotak Securities Ltd, said, “There could be occasional bearish periods in the market as investors may reduce their portfolio due to various negative factors.”
Effect on the movement of crude oil and rupee
Ajit Mishra, vice-president, technical research, Religare Broking, said, “As the new month begins, investors will be eyeing important macroeconomic data.” The GDP and core sector data will come on February 28. Apart from this, the figures for PMI manufacturing and services sector will come on March 1 and March 3 respectively. Mishra said that the monthly figures of vehicle sales would come on March 1. Along with domestic data, global market performance, crude oil prices and rupee movement will also be important for the market. Vinod Nair, head of research, Geojit Financial Services, said that amid the resumption of ‘cold war’ between the US and Russia, all kinds of apprehensions have arisen in the market. Nair said, however, that this would have a short-term effect. But concerns remain about the impact of sanctions on Russia on food and oil exports.